The hryvnia this autumn, will remain approximately at current levels.
This is due to significant revenue farmers and steelmakers, plans on cooperation with the International monetary Fund (IMF) under the new program, and more planned business activities through the publication of the forecast rate of the National Bank of Ukraine. This opinion was expressed by bankers at the roundtable in Kiev organized by the August 20 edition Finklub, writes the online edition of the Chronicle.info with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.
“I do not see serious reasons for the devaluation of the hryvnia: plus or minus it will be in the same corridor,” — said the head of Treasury Department the Bank’s Forward Natalia Shishatskaya.
It predicts that the seasonal increase in activity could push the hryvnia to some weakening, but it will not have much impact.
“The factor that we expect a fairly large export revenues from farmers and metallurgical products, I think that will smooth out this activity,” she said.
The head of Board of Bank Globus Sergey Mamedov stressed that the recent decision of the national Bank on the publication of the forecast of interest rates will give businesses the opportunity to better plan the purchase and sale of currency that, in turn, pushed and generally altered the seasonality of the foreign exchange market. According to Mammadov, the course will influence the continuation of cooperation with IMF and reform. The banker praised the policy of the national Bank regarding the rate cuts, which should lead to increased lending.
Chief economist at Alfa Bank Alexei Blinov said that, despite positive forecasts, “you cannot underestimate any threat.” It is advised not to forget the experience of 2008: “In 2008, the economy grew and the first and second quarters. All know what happened in the fourth quarter.”
The Deputy head of the national Bank Dmitry Sologub noted that in the country there is now a financial de-dollarization. In his opinion, it is important not to force but to continue with normal macroeconomic policies, flexible exchange rate, reduce inflation, economic growth, which will ultimately allow you to continue depolarization.
According to Sologub, the national Bank puts a lot of hopes on the new Parliament to implement its plans for further FX liberalization.
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“The national Bank does not have to chase after those who sell or buy the currency. The country still needs to understand who paid the taxes when you withdraw money in an offshore jurisdiction. If all this is done, we will move to a liberalized foreign exchange market “, — he added.